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Long‐term phenological trends, species accumulation rates, aphid traits and climate: five decades of change in migrating aphids
Author(s) -
Bell James R.,
Alderson Lynda,
Izera Daniela,
Kruger Tracey,
Parker Sue,
Pickup Jon,
Shortall Chris R.,
Taylor Mark S.,
Verrier Paul,
Harrington Richard
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of animal ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.134
H-Index - 157
eISSN - 1365-2656
pISSN - 0021-8790
DOI - 10.1111/1365-2656.12282
Subject(s) - phenology , aphid , climate change , context (archaeology) , biology , growing season , ecology , geography , horticulture , paleontology
Summary Aphids represent a significant challenge to food production. The Rothamsted Insect Survey ( RIS ) runs a network of 12·2‐m suction‐traps throughout the year to collect migrating aphids. In 2014, the RIS celebrated its 50th anniversary. This paper marks that achievement with an extensive spatiotemporal analysis and the provision of the first British annotated checklist of aphids since 1964. Our main aim was to elucidate mechanisms that advance aphid phenology under climate change and explain these using life‐history traits. We then highlight emerging pests using accumulation patterns. Linear and nonlinear mixed‐effect models estimated the average rate of change per annum and effects of climate on annual counts, first and last flights and length of flight season since 1965. Two climate drivers were used: the accumulated day degrees above 16 °C ( ADD 16) indicated the potential for migration during the aphid season; the North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ) signalled the severity of the winter before migration took place. All 55 species studied had earlier first flight trends at rate of β = −0·611 ± SE 0·015 days year −1 . Of these species, 49% had earlier last flights, but the average species effect appeared relatively stationary (β = −0·010 ± SE 0·022 days year −1 ). Most species (85%) showed increasing duration of their flight season (β = 0·336 ± SE 0·026 days year −1 ), even though only 54% increased their log annual count (β = 0·002 ± SE <0·001 year −1 ). The ADD 16 and NAO were shown to drive patterns in aphid phenology in a spatiotemporal context. Early in the year when the first aphids were migrating, the effect of the winter NAO was highly significant. Further into the year, ADD 16 was a strong predictor. Latitude had a near linear effect on first flights, whereas longitude produced a generally less‐clear effect on all responses. Aphids that are anholocyclic (permanently parthenogenetic) or are monoecious (non‐host‐alternating) were advancing their phenology faster than those that were not. Climate drives phenology and traits help explain how this takes place biologically. Phenology and trait ecology are critical to understanding the threat posed by emerging pests such as M yzus persicae nicotianae and A phis fabae cirsiiacanthoidis , as revealed by the species accumulation analysis.