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Producer Ability to Forecast Harvest Corn and Soybean Prices
Author(s) -
Kenyon David E.
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.1111/1058-7195.00051
Subject(s) - agricultural economics , business , economics , agricultural science , agronomy , agricultural engineering , environmental science , biology , engineering
Harvest‐price expectations for corn and soybeans were obtained in January and February each year from 1991–1998. Producer expectations on average missed actualcorn and soybean prices by $0.41 and $0.67 per bushel, respectively. Producer price expectations each year had a range of over $1.00 per bushelfor both crops. Producer price distributions were skewed toward higher prices, and they consistently underestimated the probability of large price changes from January until harvest.