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The Ultimate Uncertainty — Intergenerational Planning
Author(s) -
Starr Chauncey
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/0272-4332.206073
Subject(s) - risk analysis (engineering) , variety (cybernetics) , plan (archaeology) , outcome (game theory) , competition (biology) , actuarial science , investment (military) , frame (networking) , quality (philosophy) , economics , operations management , management science , business , computer science , microeconomics , ecology , telecommunications , philosophy , archaeology , epistemology , artificial intelligence , biology , politics , political science , law , history
The philosophic and practical aspects of intergenerational planning for a 50 – 100‐year time frame are reviewed, with recognition of its speculative quality. Society's near term choice of future physical pathways based on comparative quantitative benefit/cost/risk analyses of alternatives is usually modified by the intervention of a variety of time‐dependent, nontechnical value systems. Further, the continuous competition among society's disparate technical systems, capital investment choices, and planning objectives all contribute to the uncertainty of the intergenerational outcome of any plan. Nevertheless, the quantitative planning process provides an essential base. Benefit/cost/risk projections are discussed for both the case with a historical database and the case without such a historical base. The end‐objectives and continuous nature of such benefit/cost/risk analyses are described.