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Self‐Prophecy Effects and Voter Turnout: An Experimental Replication
Author(s) -
Smith Jennifer K.,
Gerber Alan S.,
Orlich Anton
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
political psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.419
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1467-9221
pISSN - 0162-895X
DOI - 10.1111/0162-895x.00342
Subject(s) - voter turnout , replication (statistics) , turnout , voting , psychology , social psychology , voting behavior , political science , law , statistics , mathematics , politics
Psychological research has found that being asked to predict one's future actions can bring about subsequent behavior consistent with the prediction but different from what would have occurred had no prediction been made. In a 1987 study, Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, and Young induced an increase in voting behavior by means of such a “self‐prophecy” effect: Undergraduates who were asked to predict whether they would vote in an upcoming election were substantially more likely to go to the polls than those who had not been asked for a prediction. This paper reports on a replication of the Greenwald study conducted among a larger group of respondents more representative of the American electorate. No evidence was found that self‐prophecy effects increase voter turnout.