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Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake
Author(s) -
Cho Sungbin,
Gordon Peter,
Moore II James E.,
Richardson Harry W.,
Shinozuka Masanobu,
Chang Stephanie
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
journal of regional science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.171
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1467-9787
pISSN - 0022-4146
DOI - 10.1111/0022-4146.00206
Subject(s) - metropolitan area , flow network , computer science , transport engineering , geography , engineering , mathematical optimization , mathematics , archaeology
In this paper we summarize an integrated, operational model of losses due to earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how these losses affect the metropolitan economy. The procedure advances the information provided by transportation and activity system analysis techniques in ways that help capture the most important ecomonic implications of earthquakes. Network costs and origin‐destination requirements are modeled endogenously and consistently. Indirect and induced losses associated with direct impacts on transportation and industrial capacity are distributed across zones and ecomonic sectors. Preliminary results are summarized for a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles.