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Exports' Contribution to Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for California, Massachusetts, and Texas, Using Employment Data[Note 1. I thank Carolyn Sherwood‐Call, James P. LeSage, Andrew Krikelas, ...]
Author(s) -
Nishiyama Yasuo
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
journal of regional science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.171
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1467-9787
pISSN - 0022-4146
DOI - 10.1111/0022-4146.00045
Subject(s) - economics , granger causality , base (topology) , economic base analysis , causality (physics) , econometrics , macroeconomics , microeconomics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , physics , quantum mechanics
The paper shows an interregional trade model from which testable parameter restrictions for economic base theory, shown to be equivalent to the hypotheses of the Granger causality test, are derived. The results of the tests for three states, based on various bifurcation methods, suggest that economic base theory holds strongly for the crudest definition of the base, but not for others. The frequency analysis indicates a likely association between inherent cyclicalities in employment growth data and economic base theory. The regional multipliers and the timing of economic adjustments to exogenous shocks are also discussed.