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The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
Author(s) -
Baker Malcolm,
Wurgler Jeffrey
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/0022-1082.00285
Subject(s) - equity (law) , inefficiency , equity capital markets , equity risk , equity ratio , economics , financial economics , business , debt , stock market , monetary economics , finance , private equity , microeconomics , paleontology , horse , political science , law , biology
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market explanations of the results. Instead, the fact that the equity share sometimes predicts significantly negative market returns suggests inefficiency and that firms time the market component of their returns when issuing securities.