Weather prediction with multiclass support vector machines in the fault detection of photovoltaic system

Since the efficiency of photovoltaic U+0028 PV U+0029 power is closely related to the weather, many PV enterprises install weather instruments to monitor the working state of the PV power system. With the development of the soft measurement technology, the instrumental method seems obsolete and involves high cost. This paper proposes a novel method for predicting the types of weather based on the PV power data and partial meteorological data. By this method, the weather types are deduced by data analysis, instead of weather instrument. A better fault detection is obtained by using the support vector machines U+0028 SVM U+0029 and comparing the predicted and the actual weather. The model of the weather prediction is established by a direct SVM for training multiclass predictors. Although SVM is suitable for classification, the classified results depend on the type of the kernel, the parameters of the kernel, and the soft margin coefficient, which are difficult to choose. In this paper, these parameters are optimized by particle swarm optimization U+0028 PSO U+0029 algorithm in anticipation of good prediction results can be achieved. Prediction results show that this method is feasible and effective.