Open AccessNovel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates
Author(s) -
Jonathan M. Read,
Jessica R. E. Bridgen,
Derek A. T. Cummings,
Antonia Ho,
Chris Jewell
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
philosophical transactions - royal society. biological sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.753
H-Index - 272
eISSN - 1471-2970
pISSN - 0962-8436
DOI - 10.1098/rstb.2020.0265
Subject(s) - covid-19 , pandemic , coronavirus , estimation , basic reproduction number , betacoronavirus , transmission (telecommunications) , epidemiology , china , demography , statistics , virology , geography , medicine , outbreak , environmental health , infectious disease (medical specialty) , computer science , mathematics , disease , population , management , economics , telecommunications , archaeology , sociology
Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39–4.13), indicating that 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6–7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090–33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.