Open AccessNon-pharmaceutical intervention levels to reduce the COVID-19 attack ratio among children
Author(s) -
Jummy David,
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi,
Francesca Scarabel,
Zachary McCarthy,
Jianhong Wu
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
royal society open science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.84
H-Index - 51
ISSN - 2054-5703
DOI - 10.1098/rsos.211863
Subject(s) - herd immunity , attack rate , transmissibility (structural dynamics) , transmission (telecommunications) , population , demography , vaccination , covid-19 , medicine , isolation (microbiology) , social distance , generality , statistics , biology , immunology , mathematics , environmental health , psychology , computer science , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , psychotherapist , sociology , telecommunications , quantum mechanics , vibration , physics , vibration isolation , microbiology and biotechnology
The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on an age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0–11 years) when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to contain the epidemic among this subpopulation, or theeffective herd immunity (with additional physical distancing measures). We describe the relationship between the attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the population of Canada and in its province of Ontario. The clinical attack ratio, defined as the number of symptomatic infections over the total population, can be informed from the attack ratio and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of reduced social mixing and rapid testing and isolation of the children.