Open AccessEffects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: the case of Italy
Author(s) -
Bruno Buonomo,
Rossella Della Marca
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
royal society open science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.84
H-Index - 51
ISSN - 2054-5703
DOI - 10.1098/rsos.201635
Subject(s) - covid-19 , pandemic , quarantine , outbreak , china , epidemic model , social distance , public health , demography , threatened species , geography , environmental health , disease , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , virology , sociology , population , biology , nursing , archaeology , ecology , pathology , habitat
The COVID-19 pandemic that started in China in December 2019 has not only threatened world public health, but severely impacted almost every facet of life, including behavioural and psychological aspects. In this paper, we focus on the ‘human element’ and propose a mathematical model to investigate the effects on the COVID-19 epidemic of social behavioural changes in response to lockdowns. We consider an SEIR-like epidemic model where the contact and quarantine rates depend on the available information and rumours about the disease status in the community. The model is applied to the case of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. We consider the period that stretches between 24 February 2020, when the first bulletin by the Italian Civil Protection was reported and 18 May 2020, when the lockdown restrictions were mostly removed. The role played by the information-related parameters is determined by evaluating how they affect suitable outbreak-severity indicators. We estimate that citizen compliance with mitigation measures played a decisive role in curbing the epidemic curve by preventing a duplication of deaths and about 46% more infections.