Open AccessOptimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland
Author(s) -
Gavin M. Abernethy,
David H. Glass
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of the royal society interface
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.655
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1742-5689
pISSN - 1742-5662
DOI - 10.1098/rsif.2021.0896
Subject(s) - covid-19 , herd immunity , pandemic , population , epidemic model , term (time) , geography , biology , virology , medicine , outbreak , environmental health , infectious disease (medical specialty) , physics , disease , pathology , quantum mechanics
An age-structured SEIR model simulates the propagation of COVID-19 in the population of Northern Ireland. It is used to identify optimal timings of short-term lockdowns that enable long-term pandemic exit strategies by clearing the threshold for herd immunity or achieving time for vaccine development with minimal excess deaths.