Open AccessMisinformation can prevent the suppression of epidemics
Author(s) -
Andrei Sontag,
Tim Rogers,
Christian A. Yates
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of the royal society interface
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1742-5689
pISSN - 1742-5662
DOI - 10.1098/rsif.2021.0668
Subject(s) - misinformation , internet privacy , psychological intervention , social distance , pandemic , public health , population , quality (philosophy) , public opinion , masking (illustration) , computer security , public relations , risk analysis (engineering) , disease , psychology , business , medicine , political science , environmental health , covid-19 , computer science , infectious disease (medical specialty) , law , psychiatry , politics , philosophy , pathology , epistemology , nursing , art , visual arts
The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing and social distancing, as control measures for pandemic disease relies upon a conscientious and well-informed public who are aware of and prepared to follow advice. Unfortunately, public health messages can be undermined by competing misinformation and conspiracy theories, spread virally through communities that are already distrustful of expert opinion. In this article, we propose and analyse a simple model of the interaction between disease spread and awareness dynamics in a heterogeneous population composed of both trusting individuals who seek better quality information and will take precautionary measures, and distrusting individuals who reject better quality information and have overall riskier behaviour. We show that, as the density of the distrusting population increases, the model passes through a phase transition to a state in which major outbreaks cannot be suppressed. Our work highlights the urgent need for effective interventions to increase trust and inform the public.