Open AccessA data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities
Author(s) -
Ling Yin,
Hao Zhang,
Yuan Li,
Kang Liu,
Tianmu Chen,
Wei Luo,
Shengjie Lai,
Ye Li,
Xiujuan Tang,
Ning Li,
Feng Shi,
Yanjie Wei,
Zhiyuan Zhao,
Ying Wen,
Liang Mao,
Shujiang Mei
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of the royal society interface
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.655
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1742-5689
pISSN - 1742-5662
DOI - 10.1098/rsif.2021.0112
Subject(s) - contact tracing , megacity , psychological intervention , public health , medicine , environmental health , herd immunity , population , disease , covid-19 , infectious disease (medical specialty) , nursing , economy , pathology , economics
Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 spread among 11.2 million individuals living in Shenzhen City, China. After validation by local epidemiological observations, the model was used to assess the probability of COVID-19 resurgence if sporadic cases occurred in a fully reopened city. Combined scenarios of three critical non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact tracing, mask wearing and prompt testing) were assessed at various levels of public compliance. Our results show a greater than 50% chance of disease resurgence if the city reopened without contact tracing. However, tracing household contacts, in combination with mandatory mask use and prompt testing, could suppress the probability of resurgence under 5% within four weeks. If household contact tracing could be expanded to work/class group members, the COVID resurgence could be avoided if 80% of the population wear facemasks and 40% comply with prompt testing. Our assessment, including modelling for different scenarios, helps public health practitioners tailor interventions within Shenzhen City and other world megacities under a variety of suppression timelines, risk tolerance, healthcare capacity and public compliance.