Open AccessAvoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity
Author(s) -
Philip B. Greenspoon,
Hamish G. Spencer
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
biology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.596
H-Index - 110
eISSN - 1744-957X
pISSN - 1744-9561
DOI - 10.1098/rsbl.2021.0459
Subject(s) - environmental change , extinction (optical mineralogy) , phenotypic plasticity , biology , adaptation (eye) , transgenerational epigenetics , plasticity , adaptive evolution , evolutionary biology , ecology , climate change , genetics , gene , paleontology , neuroscience , epigenetics , physics , thermodynamics
Rapid environmental changes are putting numerous species at risk of extinction. For migration-limited species, persistence depends on either phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation (evolutionary rescue). Current theory on evolutionary rescue typically assumes linear environmental change. Yet accelerating environmental change may pose a bigger threat. Here, we present a model of a species encountering an environment with accelerating or decelerating change, to which it can adapt through evolution or phenotypic plasticity (within-generational or transgenerational). We show that unless either form of plasticity is sufficiently strong or adaptive genetic variation is sufficiently plentiful, accelerating or decelerating environmental change increases extinction risk compared to linear environmental change for the same mean rate of environmental change.