Open AccessModel-Based Predictions of HIV Incidence Among African Women Using HIV Risk Behaviors and Community-Level Data on Male HIV Prevalence and Viral Suppression
Author(s) -
James R. Moore,
Deborah Donnell,
Marie-Claude Boily,
Kate Mitchell,
Sinéad Delany-Moretlwe,
LindaGail Bekker,
Nyaradzo Mgodi,
Wafaa ElSadr,
Myron S. Cohen,
Connie Celum,
Dobromir Dimitrov
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.162
H-Index - 157
eISSN - 1944-7884
pISSN - 1525-4135
DOI - 10.1097/qai.0000000000002481
Subject(s) - emtricitabine , medicine , pre exposure prophylaxis , incidence (geometry) , psychological intervention , population , microbicide , placebo , confidence interval , demography , viral load , immunology , men who have sex with men , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , environmental health , psychiatry , antiretroviral therapy , alternative medicine , physics , syphilis , pathology , sociology , optics
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine has proven highly effective in preventing HIV acquisition and is therefore offered to all participants in the control group as part of the standard of care package in many new HIV prevention studies. We propose a methodology for predicting HIV incidence in a hypothetical "placebo arm" for open-label studies or clinical trials with active control among African women. We apply the method to an open-label PrEP study, HIV Prevention Trials Network 082, which tested strategies to improve PrEP adherence in young African women all of whom were offered PrEP.