Open AccessDevelopment and validation of a postoperative delirium prediction model for pediatric patients
Author(s) -
Nan Lin,
Kexian Liu,
Jie Feng,
Chuanmin Ruan,
Ying Yang,
Dongwen Lv,
Yue Zhou,
Hongzhen Xu
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.59
H-Index - 148
eISSN - 1536-5964
pISSN - 0025-7974
DOI - 10.1097/md.0000000000025894
Subject(s) - medicine , delirium , logistic regression , odds ratio , dexmedetomidine , confidence interval , receiver operating characteristic , emergence delirium , youden's j statistic , diagnostic odds ratio , otorhinolaryngology , area under the curve , surgery , anesthesia , intensive care medicine , sedation
Postoperative delirium is a serious complication that relates to poor outcomes. A risk prediction model could help the staff screen for children at high risk for postoperative delirium. Our study aimed to establish a postoperative delirium prediction model for pediatric patients and to verify the sensitivity and specificity of this model. Data were collected from a total of 1134 children (0–16yr) after major elective surgery between February 2020 to June 2020. Demographic and clinical data were collected to explore the risk factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model, and we assessed the predictive ability of the model by using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Further data were collected from another 100 patients in October 2020 to validate the model. Prevalence of postoperative delirium in this sample was 11.1%. The model consisted of 5 predictors, namely, age, developmental delay, type of surgery, pain, and dexmedetomidine. The AUROC was 0.889 ( P < .001, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.857–0.921), with sensitivity and specificity of 0.754 and 0.867, and the Youden of 0.621. The model verification results showed the sensitivity of 0.667, the specificity of 0.955. Children undergoing surgery are at risk for developing delirium during the postoperative period, young age, developmental delay, otorhinolaryngology surgery, pain, and exposure to dexmedetomidine were associated with increased odds of delirium. Our study established a postoperative delirium prediction model for pediatric patients, which may be a base for development of strategies to prevent and treat postoperative delirium in children.