Open AccessAssessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level
Author(s) -
Cheng Yu,
Zi Xiao Wang,
Yue Xu,
Ming Hu,
Kai Chen,
Gang Qin
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.59
H-Index - 148
eISSN - 1536-5964
pISSN - 0025-7974
DOI - 10.1097/md.0000000000025837
Subject(s) - medicine , covid-19 , betacoronavirus , pandemic , coronavirus infections , medline , virology , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , political science , law
Background: There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R 0 ) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures. Methods: Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R 0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R 0 values comparable, and by country/region to explore whether R 0 estimates differed across the world. The average R 0 values were pooled using a random-effects model. Results: We identified 185 unique articles, yielding 43 articles for analysis. The selected studies covered 5 countries from Asia, 5 countries from Europe, 12 countries from Africa, and 1 from North America, South America, and Australia each. Exponential growth rate model was most favored by researchers. The pooled global R 0 was 4.08 (95% CI, 3.09–5.39). The R 0 estimates for new and shifting epicenters were comparable or even higher than that for the original epicenter Wuhan, China. Conclusions: The high R 0 values suggest that an extraordinary combination of control measures is needed for halting COVID-19.