Does the pancreatic volume reduction rate using serial computed tomographic volumetry predict new onset diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy?

Volume reduction of the pancreatic tissues following a pancreatectomy can lead to the deterioration of glucose homeostasis. This is defined as pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus (DM). The objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of new-onset DM (NODM) and evaluate the risk factors, including the pancreas volume reduction rate in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Sixty-six patients without preoperative DM underwent PD for periampullary tumors between August 2007 and December 2012 and were included in this analysis. These patients underwent follow-up tests and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan 7 days, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months after the operation. The pancreas volume reduction rate was calculated by CT volumetry. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the postoperative development of DM. After PD, newly diagnosed DM occurred in 16 patients (24.2%). The incidence of DM was highest among patients with carcinomas with an advanced T stage. The pancreatic volume reduction rate after 6 and 12 months in the NODM group was significantly higher than the normal glucose group in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM ( P  = 0.002). This study suggests that the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM. CT volumetry of the pancreas may be useful as a predictor of NODM after PD.