Open AccessA nomogram for predicting the likelihood of lymph node metastasis in early gastric signet ring cell carcinoma
Author(s) -
Chun Guang Guo,
Yan Jia Chen,
Hanyun Ren,
Hong Zhou,
Ju Fang Shi,
Xing Hua Yuan,
Ping Zhao,
Dong Zhao,
Gui Qi Wang
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.59
H-Index - 148
eISSN - 1536-5964
pISSN - 0025-7974
DOI - 10.1097/md.0000000000005393
Subject(s) - nomogram , medicine , signet ring cell carcinoma , logistic regression , oncology , cancer , metastasis , confidence interval , multivariate analysis , radiology , adenocarcinoma
Treatment algorithm has not been established for early gastric cancer with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), which has a reported low rate of lymph node metastasis (LNM) similar to differentiated cancer. A cohort of 256 patients with early gastric SRC at our center between January 2002 and December 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent factors of LNM. A nomogram for predicting LNM was constructed and internally validated. Additional external validation was performed using the database from Cancer Institute Ariake Hospital in Tokyo (n = 1273). Clinical performance of the model was assessed by decision analysis of curve. The overall LNM incidence was 12.9% (33/256). The multivariate logistic model identified sex, tumor size, and LVI as covariates associated with LNM. Subsequently, a nomogram consisted of sex, tumor size, and depth of invasion was established. The model showed qualified discrimination ability both in internal validation (area under curve, 0.801; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.729–0.873) and in external dataset (area under curve, 0.707; 95% CI, 0.657–0.758). Based on the nomogram, treatment algorithm for early gastric SRC was proposed to assist clinicians in making better decisions. We developed a nomogram predicting risk of LNM for early gastric SRC, which should be helpful for patient counseling and surgical decision-making.