Open AccessA nomogram for predicting survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with metachronous metastasis
Author(s) -
Zixun Zeng,
Lujun Shen,
Yue Wang,
Feng Shi,
Chen Chen,
Ming Wu,
Yutong Bai,
Ci Pan,
Yunfei Xia,
Peihong Wu,
Wang Li
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.59
H-Index - 148
eISSN - 1536-5964
pISSN - 0025-7974
DOI - 10.1097/md.0000000000004026
Subject(s) - medicine , nomogram , nasopharyngeal carcinoma , hazard ratio , oncology , proportional hazards model , performance status , metastasis , confidence interval , retrospective cohort study , cancer , radiation therapy
Patients with metachronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) differ significantly in survival outcomes. The aim of this study is to build a clinically practical nomogram incorporating known tumor prognostic factors to predict survival for metastatic NPC patients in epidemic areas. A total of 860 patients with metachronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma were analyzed retrospectively. Variables assessed were age, gender, body mass index, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) T and N stages, World Health Organization (WHO) histology type, serum lactate dehydrogenase (sLDH) level, serum Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) level, treatment modality, specific metastatic location (lung/liver/bone), number of metastatic location(s) (isolated vs multiple), and number of metastatic lesion(s) in metastatic location(s) (single vs multiple). The independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) by Cox-regression model were utilized to build the nomogram. Independent prognostic factors for OS of metastatic NPC patients included age, UICC N stage, KPS, sLDH, number of metastatic locations, number of metastatic lesions, involvement of liver metastasis, and involvement of bone metastasis. Calibration of the final model suggested a c-index of 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65–0.69). Based on the total point (TP) by nomogram, we further subdivided the study cohort into 4 groups. Group 1 (TP < 320, 208 patients) had the lowest risk of dying. Discrimination was visualized by the differences in survival between these 4 groups (group 2/group 1: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.24–2.09; group 3/group 1: HR = 2.20, 95%CI: 1.69–2.86; and group 4/group 1: HR = 3.66, 95%CI: 2.82–4.75). The developed nomogram can help guide the prognostication of patients with metachronous metastatic NPC in epidemic areas.