Open AccessThe Kaplan and Meier and the Nelson Estimate for the Probability of Ulcer Recurrence 10 and 15 Years after Parietal Cell Vagotomy
Author(s) -
Søren Meisner,
Lars Nannestad Jørgensen,
Hans Grinsted Jensen
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
annals of surgery
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.153
H-Index - 309
eISSN - 1528-1140
pISSN - 0003-4932
DOI - 10.1097/00000658-198801000-00001
Subject(s) - medicine , vagotomy , duodenal ulcer , parietal cell , surgery , gastroenterology , stomach , gastric acid
The use of a nonparametric estimate from incomplete observations is demonstrated on ulcer recurrence 10-15 years after parietal cell vagotomy in 339 patients with duodenal ulcer. The median period of observation was 108 months (range: 1-197 months). Proven recurrent ulcer developed in 62 patients. The life-table method as described by Kaplan and Meier and Nelson's modification are demonstrated. The calculated risk of recurrence after 10 years was 23% (+/- 3.8%) and after 15 years was 27% (+/- 4.3%). The rate of recurrence seemed to decline toward the end of the trial time.