Open AccessMultivariate Analysis of a Personal Series of 247 Patients with Liver Metastases from Colorectal Cancer
Author(s) -
Joseph G. Fortner,
John S. Silva,
Edwin B. Cox,
Robert B. Golbey,
Helen Gallowitz,
Barbara J. Maclean
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
annals of surgery
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.153
H-Index - 309
eISSN - 1528-1140
pISSN - 0003-4932
DOI - 10.1097/00000658-198403000-00011
Subject(s) - medicine , colorectal cancer , surgery , chemotherapy , multivariate analysis , lymph node , gastroenterology , adverse effect , hazard ratio , survival rate , cancer , confidence interval
One hundred and seventeen patients with colorectal hepatic metastases had insertion of catheters for infusional chemotherapy. The two-year survival estimate of patients with less than 50% hepatic replacement and no other adverse factors was 37%. Nine of 39 patients in this group are alive at 24 months. The catheters were placed into the hepatic artery (HA), 23; into the portal venous system (PV), 18; into both HA and PV, 64; or into an accessory HA following ligation, 12. Fifty-nine patients had ligation of the common HA also. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 1.7% (2/117) and morbidity was 37.6%. The majority of complications were related to fever (61%, 27/44). Over the past 2 years, 87% of patients have been discharged within 10 days following surgery. Preoperative CEA ranged from 0.5-12,150 ng/ml (median 165 ng/ml); 93% (78/84) had plasma CEA levels exceeding 5 ng/ml. All patients had careful intraoperative staging: per cent hepatic replacement (PHR) ranged from 5-95% (median 60%); portal, celiac, or periaortic lymph node metastases were observed in 31% (36/117). Initial intrahepatic chemotherapy programs consisted of either CAMF (9 patients), MAFL (60 patients), BFS (22 patients), continuous infusion FUDR (14 patients), or miscellaneous drugs (4 patients). Median survival time of 109 evaluable patients was 11.5 months. The effect of 20 variables on the observed survival time was analyzed using a multivariate proportional hazard model. Three variables were found to have influenced survival: PHR emerged as the most significant, p = 0.1. Increased PHR was associated with decreased survival time. Lymph node metastases and prior chemotherapy were prognostic factors also, p = 0.0006 and p = 0.03, respectively. No patient with PHR greater than 80% lived more than 8 months. Utilization of these variables would appear to be necessary for accurate stratification and evaluation of future chemotherapy trials in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases.