MODELLING SUBSTITUTION OF FOODS. A TOOL TO IMPROVE DIET QUALITY

Argentinean population has low intake of calcium and dairy products. Food surveys available in the country and CESNI studies show that 68% of adults do not reach a consumption of 2 servings daily and that calcium intake decreases with age at 5 year‐old as a consequence of a reduction in the amount of dairy servings consumed. This reduction results in a high proportion of individuals with calcium intakes below recommendations (from 26% of preschoolers to 74% of elderly population). In order to effectively address these insufficiencies, the challenge is to provide acceptable and potentially impactful dietary advice best suited to the eating habits of these populations. In order to capture these habits, complex statistical tools are required in particular to take into account the dynamics of consumption, associations and substitutions in real dietary practices. Methodology A statistical tool was developed to determine the associations and substitutabilities of different foods and beverages in actual eating and drinking practices. Using food and drink consumption data from a 7‐day diary run on a representative sample 18‐ to 69‐year‐old Argentinian urban women, the level of substitutability is estimated as a function of amount, frequency and moment of consumption, at the individual and population level. Simulation analyses were then performed using Creme Food ® software, in order to measure the potential impact on nutrient intakes of virtually substituting a given food or beverage for its main alternatives, in corresponding proportions. Results Our analyses show that in adult urban Argentinian women, dairy consumption could be potentially increased by replacing 23.8% of the infusions, 25.96% of cookies, and 18.1% of crackers at breakfast by fresh dairy products; or replacing 24.4% of the infusions, 25.3% of bakeries and pastries, 22.6% of crackers, and 18.15% of cookies at mid‐afternoon snacking by fresh dairy products. If these substitutions were performed with a yogurt low in sugar and fat and fortified in calcium, our simulation analyses show that the consumption of free sugars would decrease by 10% while total and saturated fat would remain stable and calcium intake would double, with prevalence of intakes below requirements shifting from 64% to 11%. Conclusion This tool applied on representative samples of the population may be useful to design realistic scenarios for potential changes in dietary patterns and their impact on nutrient intakes. Support or Funding Information Danone Nutricia Research