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System Science Models and National Data Projected Future Trends and Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Childhood Obesity in the US
Author(s) -
Xue Hong,
Chen HsinJen,
Wang Youfa
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
the faseb journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.709
H-Index - 277
eISSN - 1530-6860
pISSN - 0892-6638
DOI - 10.1096/fasebj.27.1_supplement.354.8
Subject(s) - ethnic group , childhood obesity , national health and nutrition examination survey , obesity , health equity , population , demography , medicine , public health , environmental health , gerontology , political science , sociology , nursing , overweight , law
Background Although the obesity prevalence seems to level off in young children in the US recently, the racial/ethnic disparities remain substantial. The non‐linear dynamic complexity in the increase of childhood obesity rates over time is not well studied. Objectives To forecast future trends and disparities in childhood obesity in US till 2030. Methods We fit system dynamics models to simulate changes in obesity rates in children (aged 2–19 y) using the 1999–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data and forecasted the trends till 2030. Results Our models reproduced the leveling off in the past decade. Incorporating the projection of demographic composition changes in US population, our simulations suggest that by 2030 27% of boys and 23% of girls will be obese. The disparities gap will increase, and by 2030, 38%, 32%, and 18% of Mexican‐American, Non‐Hispanic black, and non‐Hispanic white boys will be obese, respectively. In girls, the figures are 26%, 40% and 17%, respectively. Conclusions Our simulations demonstrate the recent plateau is temporary, and current efforts are not sufficient to stop the increase. Specially more effort need to target minorities. Grant Funding Source : NIH/NICHD (U54 HD070725 ‐01,1R01HD064685–01A1) and NIDDK (R01DK81335–01A1)