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Comparison of dynamic model predicted and actual weight gain during overfeeding: An energy balance analysis
Author(s) -
Begum Yasmin,
Cupidon Shanakey,
Aftab Tasnia,
Anazodo Michael
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
the faseb journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.709
H-Index - 277
eISSN - 1530-6860
pISSN - 0892-6638
DOI - 10.1096/fasebj.27.1_supplement.1069.1
Subject(s) - weight gain , confidence interval , energy balance , energy expenditure , body weight , statistics , balance (ability) , energy (signal processing) , mathematics , zoology , medicine , physical therapy , physics , thermodynamics , biology
Purpose Dynamic models that predict weight gain from standardized overfeeding protocols overestimate weight gain. The measured components of energy balance from overfeeding experiments in which adherence to energy intake was objectively established offer direction for model revisions. Methods Data was obtained from two different overfeeding studies. The Bouchard study, which was supervised in a confined environment, overfed 12 pairs of male twins by an average of 857 kcal/d for 100 days. The adherence in the 8‐week Levine overfeeding study (1000 kcal/d over baseline) was determined using the sum of changed body energy stores and energy expenditures. Two validated and widely applied weight change prediction models (the Thomas model and the Hall model) were tested against individual weight gain data and model terms (resting energy expenditure and total energy expenditure) from the Bouchard and Levine studies. A Bland Altman analysis comparing actual versus predicted final weight was performed. Results There was good correlation between model predicted and actual final weight from the Bouchard study (Thomas: R 2 =0.93, Hall: R 2 =0.89). However, the Bland Altman analysis resulted in negative bias; Hall model: bias=−2.9 kg, 95% confidence intervals −8.3, 2.1; Thomas model: bias=−1.7 kg, 95% confidence intervals −6.6, 3.0. Term by term comparison of energy expenditure in the Levine study revealed resting metabolic rate is overestimated during weight gain. Conclusion Changes in the components of energy expenditure during weight gain need to be re‐examined to correct for over‐estimation in weight gain.