Predictors of 5 y change in cardio‐metabolic risk among Guatemalan adults

We examined 376 Guatemalan adults in 1997â8 (age 24±3 y) and in 2002â4. Overweight (BMIâ¥25 kg/m 2 ) and obesity (BMIâ¥30 kg/m 2 ) prevalence increased (23% to 46% and 6% to 15%, respectively, both p<0.01), as did percent body fat (%BF; 23.3±9.8 to 27.0±10.2 %), triglycerides (129.2±64.5 to 161.0±80.2 mg/dL), the ratio of total to HDL cholesterol (TC:HDL‐c; 4.3±1.0 to 4.5±1.5 mg/dL), glucose (85.7±9.3 to 92.1±18.3 mg/dL), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP; 68.8±8.7 to 70.0±8.5 mmHg) (all P<0.05). 5y increase in %BF was associated with lower physical activity level at baseline and was higher among men; women had greater 5y increase in DBP. Age, rural/urban residence, schooling, socio‐economic status, smoking, and dietary energy and fat intakes were not associated with 5y changes in any risk factor examined. In adjusted models, 5y change in %BF was associated with changes in triglycerides (β= 4.6; 95% CI=2.3, 6.8 mg/dL per %), TC:HDL‐c (β= 0.09; 95% CI=0.05, 0.1 per %), and DBP (0.7; 95% CI=0.5, 1.0 mmHg per %). The 5y increases in cardio‐metabolic risk factors were primarily predicted by changes in %BF. Promotion of increased physical activity may help prevent adverse changes in body composition and consequent cardio‐metabolic risk. Funding: NIH TW005598 ; AHA Pre‐doctoral fellowship (COG)