Open AccessArtificial intelligence as a general-purpose technology: an historical perspective
Author(s) -
Nicholas Crafts
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
oxford review of economic policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.948
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1460-2121
pISSN - 0266-903X
DOI - 10.1093/oxrep/grab012
Subject(s) - industrial revolution , productivity , perspective (graphical) , technological revolution , economics , technological change , electricity , industrial organization , neoclassical economics , engineering , computer science , economy , economic growth , macroeconomics , artificial intelligence , law , political science , electrical engineering
This paper looks at the impact on productivity of general-purpose technologies such as steam, electricity, and ICT. It finds they had big effects but only with a lag which was substantial in the first two cases. The experience of the First Industrial Revolution is explored and it is found that this is not a template for a general-purpose technology having a major adverse effect on workers’ living standards. The essence of that industrial revolution was not rapid productivity growth in the short run, but the ‘invention of a new method of invention’ which increased technological progress in the long run. Since artificial intelligence is potentially a general-purpose technology that raises the productivity of research and development, it may be the basis for a Fourth Industrial Revolution.