The Consequences of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic on Smoking Behavior: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Smoking is a risk factor for progression of COVID-19, with smokers having higher odds of COVID-19 progression than never-smokers. This study presents novel findings on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on smoking behaviour in older adults. Methods Panel data were obtained from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (N= 60160, 12% smokers, 55% women, 62% married, mean age = 67 years, 23% employed). Fixed effect regression models were used to estimate the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic affected smoking behaviour. A separate model was estimated for men, women, employed, and retired. Results The findings suggest a significant and positive effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on smoking behaviour (β= 0.024; p<0.001). The estimated effects were stronger for men and for the sample of individuals reporting being employed. Conclusions In this study, I provide robust evidence of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on smoking behaviour using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. This large and representative dataset is uniquely suited for the analysis. I find evidence that the proportion of smokers has increased significantly as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Implications In the UK, the proportion of smokers increased significantly as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that smoking behaviour may have been used as a mechanism to cope with depression, stress, and anxiety due to the COVID-19 outbreak. To the extent to which smoking behaviour has been used as a coping mechanism to deal with job-related issues, targeted policy action to provide financial stability to those in worse economic situations may be have beneficial effects on smoking behaviour.