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EARLY ROUND UPSETS AND CHAMPIONSHIP BLOWOUTS
Author(s) -
Harbaugh Rick,
Klumpp Tilman
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1093/ei/cbi021
Subject(s) - tournament , victory , championship , basketball , margin (machine learning) , economics , rest (music) , operations management , computer science , advertising , law , political science , mathematics , business , history , physics , archaeology , combinatorics , machine learning , politics , acoustics
In equilibrium play of a two‐round tournament, we find that underdogs exert more effort in the opening round whereas favorites save more effort for the final. Ability differences are therefore compressed in the opening round so upsets are more likely and amplified in the final so blowouts are more likely. Measures that reduce the need to strategically allocate effort make for a more exciting final but a less exciting opening round. Consistent with the model, introduction of a rest day between matches in the NCAA men's basketball tournament increased the favorite's victory margin in the semifinals by about five points.(JEL L83 , D72 )