Premium
Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?
Author(s) -
Kiley Michael T.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1093/ei/cbg016
Subject(s) - economics , productivity , inflation (cosmology) , wage growth , proxy (statistics) , phillips curve , wage , monetary economics , macroeconomics , econometrics , labour economics , monetary policy , mathematics , statistics , physics , theoretical physics
Inflation has been low when productivity growth has been high. This occurs because the Federal Reserve has not adjusted nominal income growth in response to changes in productivity growth, implying that an acceleration in trend productivity growth leads to a deceleration in inflation. The model's predictions are confirmed: (1) Inflation should fall when trend productivity growth rises, and (2) nominal income and wage growth should not change with trend productivity. The model also implies that productivity growth enters a Phillips curve relationship as a proxy for inflation expectations. Thus, estimates of the NAIRU should fall when productivity growth accelerates.