Open AccessWhat Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?
Author(s) -
Amanda Minter,
Lorenzo Pellis,
Graham F. Medley,
T. Déirdre Hollingsworth
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
clinical infectious diseases/clinical infectious diseases (online. university of chicago. press)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.44
H-Index - 336
eISSN - 1537-6591
pISSN - 1058-4838
DOI - 10.1093/cid/ciab188
Subject(s) - neglected tropical diseases , context (archaeology) , psychological intervention , medicine , intervention (counseling) , public health , public health interventions , millennium development goals , risk analysis (engineering) , global health , control (management) , public economics , developing country , economic growth , computer science , economics , geography , nursing , archaeology , artificial intelligence
As programs move closer toward the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims-for example, minimizing morbidity and minimizing costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move toward 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.