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Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia
Author(s) -
Dibooğlu Sel,
Aleisa Eisa
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
contemporary economic policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.454
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1465-7287
pISSN - 1074-3529
DOI - 10.1093/cep/byh005
Subject(s) - economics , exchange rate , balance of trade , vector autoregression , structural vector autoregression , balance of payments , oil price , aggregate demand , terms of trade , monetary economics , macroeconomics , monetary policy
The article investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Saudi Arabia using structural vector autoregression methods and pays particular attention to oil prices and changes in terms of trade. Using a macroeconomic model tailored to the Saudi Arabian economy, the authors identify terms of trade, supply, balance of payments, aggregate demand, and monetary shocks. The results show that the Saudi Arabian price level, real exchange rate, and to a lesser extent output is vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. Moreover, Saudi Arabian terms of trade are driven by output, trade balance, and aggregate demand shocks. To stabilize output and the real exchange rate, Saudi Arabia ought to continue diversifying its production base and aim for a stable nominal oil price. (JEL E32 , Q43 , C22 )