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Identifying Efficient Crime‐Combating Policies by VAR Models: The Example of Switzerland
Author(s) -
Funk Patricia,
Kugler Peter
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
contemporary economic policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.454
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1465-7287
pISSN - 1074-3529
DOI - 10.1093/cep/byg030
Subject(s) - deterrence (psychology) , sentence , enforcement , law enforcement , econometrics , economics , public economics , crime prevention , actuarial science , business , criminology , computer science , political science , law and economics , psychology , law , artificial intelligence
Current research suggests that the crime‐combating instrument sentence probability is more effective than sentence severity. However, the focus of the simultaneous (or very short‐run) impact of the law enforcement policy on crime impedes a comparison of these two instruments with respect to their long‐term effectiveness. With Swiss data, this article investigates the dynamic interrelationships between enforcement policy and crime and finds that overall, sentence severity is about the same effective as sentence probability. Furthermore, the authors show how the VAR‐modeling technique can be exploited to conveniently distinguish between deterrence and incapacitation effects. More concrete recommendations toward a cost‐effective crime‐reduction policy can be derived. (JEL C32 , K42 )