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Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?
Author(s) -
Maystadt Jean-François,
Ecker Olivier
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.1093/ajae/aau010
Subject(s) - livestock , causality (physics) , civil conflict , spanish civil war , economics , extreme weather , armed conflict , climate change , geography , political science , ecology , biology , law , forestry , physics , archaeology , quantum mechanics
A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within‐country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.