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More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields
Author(s) -
Tack Jesse,
Harri Ardian,
Coble Keith
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.1093/ajae/aas071
Subject(s) - estimator , principle of maximum entropy , econometrics , moment (physics) , mathematics , statistics , entropy (arrow of time) , crop yield , agronomy , physics , classical mechanics , quantum mechanics , biology
This article proposes the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible approach for estimating conditional crop yield distributions. We present a moment‐based model that extends previous approaches, and is easily estimated using standard econometric estimators. Predicted moments under alternative regimes are used as constraints in a maximum entropy framework to analyze the distributional impacts of switching regimes. An empirical application for Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas upland cotton demonstrates how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution, and allows us to illustrate several advantages of our moment‐based maximum entropy approach.