Open AccessExpanding the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for Predicting Diabetes Incidence in People Living with HIV
Author(s) -
Karla I. Galavíz,
Michael Schneider,
Phyllis C. Tien,
Keri N. Althoff,
Mohammed K. Ali,
Igho Ofotokun,
Todd T. Brown
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
aids research and human retroviruses
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.993
H-Index - 92
eISSN - 1931-8405
pISSN - 0889-2229
DOI - 10.1089/aid.2020.0247
Subject(s) - diabetes mellitus , medicine , insulin resistance , incidence (geometry) , cohort , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , cohort study , multicenter aids cohort study , type 2 diabetes , prospective cohort study , endocrinology , immunology , antiretroviral therapy , viral load , physics , optics
This study investigated whether the predictive ability of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) can be improved among people with HIV by adding a marker of insulin resistance. In this longitudinal analysis of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and the Women's Interagency HIV Study, HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants without prevalent diabetes were included. FINDRISC score and the Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) were calculated at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations between baseline risk scores and time to incident diabetes (first self-report of diabetes medication use). Model discrimination (Uno's c -statistic) and calibration (observed vs. cumulative probability of diabetes) were assessed for FINDRISC, HOMA-IR, and combined FINDRISC and HOMA-IR. Overall, 2,527 men (1,299 HIV-positive and 1,228 HIV-negative, median age = 44) and 2,446 women (1,841 HIV-positive and 605 HIV-negative, median age = 41) were included. Over 47,040 person-years of follow-up, diabetes incidence rates per 1,000 person-years were 9.5 in HIV-positive men, 7.1 in HIV-negative men, 14.5 in HIV-positive women, and 15.1 in HIV-negative women. FINDRISC discrimination (HIV-positive men c = 0.64 [0.55, 0.74], HIV-negative men c = 0.74 [0.68, 0.79], HIV-positive women c = 0.68 [0.64, 0.71], and HIV-negative women c = 0.73 [0.66, 0.79]) was significantly better than that of HOMA-IR. FINDRISC was better calibrated than HOMA-IR in each of the four groups. Adding HOMA-IR did not improve FINDRISC discrimination/calibration. Diabetes risk prediction with FINDRISC was suboptimal in men and women with HIV, and its performance was not improved with addition of HOMA-IR. The optimal method for identifying people living with HIV at-risk for diabetes is yet to be identified.