Open AccessRice grain quality degradation and economic loss due to global warming in Japan
Author(s) -
Yuji Masutomi,
Tetsuya Takimoto,
Muneyoshi Shimamura,
Toru Manabe,
Makoto Arakawa,
Naoya Shibota,
Atsuya Ooto,
Satoshi Azuma,
Yoko Imai,
Makoto Tamura
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
environmental research communications
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2515-7620
DOI - 10.1088/2515-7620/ab52e7
Subject(s) - global warming , environmental science , grain quality , agronomy , crop , productivity , production (economics) , climate change , crop production , agricultural engineering , agricultural economics , natural resource economics , economics , agriculture , geography , biology , engineering , economic growth , ecology , macroeconomics , archaeology
Global warming is predicted to have significant impacts not only on crop productivity but also on crop quality, leading to economic loss. In the present study, focusing on grain quality of rice in Japan, we assessed the impact of global warming on the occurrence of low quality rice grain called ‘chalky rice grain’, and the incurred economic loss. Using 10 future climate scenarios and a simulation model to estimate the occurrence of chalky rice grain, we showed that global warming will double the occurrence of chalky rice grain by the 2040 s under RCP8.5. This corresponds to one third of paddy rice fields in Japan showing a decrease in grain grade. This would produce an annual economic loss of 401.4 million US$/yr under RCP8.5 in the 2040 s. These results suggest that the development and implementation of national and local adaptation strategies are urgently needed for rice production in Japan.