Open AccessClimate Change in Ganjiang River Basin and Its Impact on Runoff
Author(s) -
Yipeng Huang,
Weilin Li,
Bin Wu,
Yifan Wan,
Shengnan Zhu
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
iop conference series. materials science and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1757-899X
pISSN - 1757-8981
DOI - 10.1088/1757-899x/964/1/012008
Subject(s) - surface runoff , swat model , environmental science , downscaling , precipitation , climate change , soil and water assessment tool , drainage basin , structural basin , flood myth , representative concentration pathways , hydrology (agriculture) , climatology , climate model , streamflow , geography , geology , ecology , meteorology , paleontology , oceanography , cartography , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , biology
Predicting the change of runoff in the future is significant to the management of regional water resources. In order to estimate future climate change of Ganjiang river basin and explore its impact on runoff, the changes of precipitation and temperature under the three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were analyzed and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was established to simulate the corresponding runoff in the Basin. The statistical relationship between the factors and the predictor in the Ganjiang river basin was built based on Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). For three scenarios, the precipitation showed slight increase trends under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, but a significant increase under RCP8.5; and generally decreased from July to October while increased from January to April. The temperature exhibited a rising trend under three scenarios, of which the rank was RCP8.5>RCP4.5>RCP2.6. The runoff had an increasing trend and the rank for the three scenarios was RCP8.5>RCP4.5>RCP2.6. Generally, runoff had a strong positive correlation with precipitation while a weak correlation with temperature. The flood risk in Ganjiang river may increase significantly in the future.