Open AccessThe transport construction investment project effectiveness assessment by Monte Carlo Method
Author(s) -
Ekaterina Kazaku,
Елена Зверева,
Ju V. Tsarionova
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
iop conference series. materials science and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1757-899X
pISSN - 1757-8981
DOI - 10.1088/1757-899x/913/5/052006
Subject(s) - monte carlo method , investment (military) , net present value , risk analysis (engineering) , risk assessment , computer science , operations research , engineering , econometrics , business , economics , microeconomics , mathematics , statistics , production (economics) , politics , political science , law , computer security
The study focuses on the effectiveness basis of the transport construction investment projects operating at three investment levels, taking into account risks using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The model on the example of a railway line has been developed. An assessment of the investments’ budgetary, social and commercial effectiveness based on the investment sources has been provided. A comprehensive criterion for substantiating the effectiveness of a project operating at three investment levels, taking risk into account, has been proposed. A risk profile has been built. The average value of the risk level using the Monte Carlo method has been estimated. An example of substantiating the effectiveness of an investment project taking into account the risk of building a railway line has been given.