Open AccessDevelopment of a proactive project monitoring model
Author(s) -
Т. А. Аверина,
A.Yu. Glushkov,
С. И. Моисеев,
Lyudmila Shevchenko
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
iop conference series. materials science and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1757-899X
pISSN - 1757-8981
DOI - 10.1088/1757-899x/862/4/042043
Subject(s) - computer science , set (abstract data type) , duration (music) , principal (computer security) , project management , operations research , regression analysis , series (stratigraphy) , industrial engineering , data mining , machine learning , engineering , systems engineering , art , paleontology , literature , biology , programming language , operating system
The article proposes a model of proactive monitoring of the project performance consisting of a set of works. This model will allow you to predict in advance the values of the principal features of the project, the main of which is its duration. The use of this model in project management tasks will make it possible to make decisions at earlier stages. In the case of predicting the excess of their critical values, it becomes possible to take measures to eliminate the problem in advance. The mathematical model is based on the methods of regression analysis, namely, on modeling and forecasting the trends of the time series, consisting of the project deadlines at various points in time. The results of computational experiments are presented, which showed that the developed forecasting model provides adequate estimates and the forecasting results are in good agreement with empirical data. In addition, the model depends on a small number of parameters, the influence of which is studied in this paper.