Open AccessStudy on the Influencing Factors for Emergency Rescue of Nuclear Leakage
Author(s) -
Changkun Chen,
Qingzhong Chen,
Tao Xu,
Jie Chen
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
iop conference series. materials science and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1757-899X
pISSN - 1757-8981
DOI - 10.1088/1757-899x/612/5/052014
Subject(s) - nuclear power , nuclear power plant , leakage (economics) , emergency response , markov chain , reliability engineering , markov process , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , emergency management , environmental science , nuclear engineering , operations research , engineering , statistics , mathematics , business , nuclear physics , machine learning , medical emergency , physics , medicine , law , economics , political science , macroeconomics
In order to study the key influencing factors of emergency rescue for nuclear leakage, based on the five aspects of nuclear emergency capability, reactor characteristics, surrounding environment, weather and climate, and accident time, we constructs a Markov probability transfer model for the influencing factors of emergency rescue for nuclear leakage by combining the cross impact and Markov transfer prediction, and a gulf nuclear power plant is selected as an illustrative case. In addition, the initial probability matrix is reasonably determined by the expert scoring method, and the stable matrix which can reflect the stability probability of each factor is finally obtained after the cross impact analysis and multiple Markov state transitions. The results show that the probability of nuclear emergency capability is increased in the emergency response analysis of nuclear leakage incidents, which truly reflects the development direction and degree of cross impact. Furthermore, it provides reference opinions for the emergency response of nuclear leakage incidents in the future.