Open AccessCarbon Emission Prediction of Civil Buildings in China based on Improved Grey Prediction Method
Author(s) -
Jie Yuan,
Y. S. Liu,
Jinxin Xu,
Shenghao Gao,
X. T. Li
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
iop conference series. materials science and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1757-899X
pISSN - 1757-8981
DOI - 10.1088/1757-899x/592/1/012138
Subject(s) - china , environmental science , greenhouse gas , carbon fibers , energy conservation , efficient energy use , environmental engineering , civil engineering , engineering , geography , computer science , ecology , archaeology , algorithm , composite number , electrical engineering , biology
Civil construction is an important source of carbon emissions. The implementation of total carbon emission control for civil buildings is an important means to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction in China. The study divides civil buildings into urban residential buildings, rural residential buildings, public buildings, and northern urban heating. The study calculates and predicts the total carbon emissions of China’s civil buildings. Firstly, according to the statistical method of IPCC, the calculation model of carbon emissions of civil buildings is constructed, and the total amount of carbon emissions of civil buildings in China from 2005 to 2016 is calculated by using the energy balance table. Further, based on the improved grey prediction method, the national civil use from 2017 to 2025 is predicted. Total carbon emissions from construction. The forecast results show that in 2017-2025, the annual average carbon emission growth rate of buildings is about 4.65%, and by 2025, the total emission is expected to reach 298.176 million tons of CO 2 . In order to achieve the 2030 emission reduction target, it is necessary to further optimize the energy structure, improve the energy efficiency of the building, and increase the carbon emission reduction in civil construction.