Assessment of the ecological and social potential of the organization of ecological zones to ensure sustainable transport development of territories

The article presents the results of an assessment of the impact on the environment and public health of measures to prohibit entry into a certain territory of the city of cars belonging to low environmental classes (“ecological zone” or “ecozone”). When justifying the choice of the city on the example of which the research was conducted (Novosibirsk), both environmental and socio-economic aspects were taken into account. The assessment of the environmental impact of the ecozone organization consisted in modeling traffic flows on the road network before and after the organization of the ecozone, estimating the emissions of pollutants from the totality of traffic flows, calculating the maximum and average annual surface concentrations of the considered pollutants on the territory of the ecozone. Based on the calculated average annual concentrations of pollutants, characteristics of the population density living in the ecozone, and scenarios of its interaction with pollutants, public health risk assessments were carried out before and after the organization of the ecozone. Studies have shown that the change in gross emissions of major pollutants during the organization of the ecozone in Novosibirsk will be 40…60%. Ground-level concentrations of these pollutants will decrease by about the same amount. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to the population will be reduced by about half.