Open AccessCollision risk assessment in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River based on evidential reasoning
Author(s) -
Anxin He,
Jinfen Zhang,
Di Zhang,
Weidong Gan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. materials science and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1757-899X
pISSN - 1757-8981
DOI - 10.1088/1757-899x/1043/5/052050
Subject(s) - collision , yangtze river , section (typography) , hazard , risk assessment , measure (data warehouse) , channel (broadcasting) , environmental science , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , geography , data mining , business , computer security , telecommunications , chemistry , archaeology , organic chemistry , china , operating system
Collision between ships is one of the dominant types of accidents in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River, accounting for over 60% of the accidents. An evidential reasoning (ER) approach is introduced to perform a quantitative assessment of the safety of the whole waterway by dividing it into 17 sub-sections. The Risk Influencing Factors (RIFs) including channel condition, navigation environment and navigation aids conditions are considered and further decomposed into several sub-factors. The expert knowledge is used to quantify the relative importance of the RIFs to the collision risk. The historical data is used to make the Basic Probability Assignments (BPAs) of the belief structures. The hazard index (HI) is used as a measure of collision risk. The results indicate that Kouanzhi Waters and Jiaoshan Waters carry much higher collision risk than other waters, whereas Nanjing Waters and Fanjiafan Waters have the lowest collision risk. The results are useful for the maritime safety management in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River.