Open AccessConcerning the time horizon of prognostic indicators to be beforehand with local climate changes
Author(s) -
Yury Kolokolov,
Anna Monovskaya
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/979/1/012124
Subject(s) - climate change , context (archaeology) , climatology , feature (linguistics) , time horizon , horizon , resource (disambiguation) , environmental science , econometrics , environmental resource management , geography , computer science , meteorology , geology , mathematics , mathematical optimization , oceanography , computer network , linguistics , philosophy , geometry , archaeology
The paper researches the time resource to be beforehand with climate changes. The feature of the research consists in the following: the evolutionary properties of the local climate dynamics are considered from the bifurcation analysis, and adaptive properties are considered from the control theory. Then the principal event-driven scenario of the climate change birth is revealed over the period of the reliable meteorological observations; next, the rate of its development is estimated in the context of factually realized precedents; so, time horizons of prognostic indicators are determined. The research is founded on the regulatory theory on local climate dynamics. The analytical conclusions are illustrated by examples of processing the open-access data on daily mean air surface temperature in the continental part of Russia.