Open AccessImpact of weather factors on hospital admission of hand, foot and mouth disease under climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City.
Author(s) -
Phung Duc Nhat,
Phu Le Vo,
Đặng Văn Chính,
Duong Thi Minh Tam,
Mai Tien Thanh
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/964/1/012016
Subject(s) - poisson regression , hand foot and mouth disease , ho chi minh , distributed lag , environmental health , extreme weather , foot and mouth disease , foot (prosody) , climate change , names of the days of the week , geography , incidence (geometry) , medicine , environmental science , disease , statistics , mathematics , population , outbreak , ecology , linguistics , philosophy , geometry , cartography , scale (ratio) , pathology , virology , biology
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the most common communicable diseases in Vietnam. The present study aims to examine the association between weather factors and HFMD in association with hospitalisation. Daily and weekly weather and HFMD data from 2013 to 2018 in Ho Chi Minh City were deployed. Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to examine the relationship between weather factors and HFMD. The forecasting model for HFMD was performed by using the Global Climate Model (GCM) and Yasushi Honda model. The result showed that the average daily temperature induces an increase in the risk of HFDM hospitalisation was 26°C- 30.1°C. The average daily humidity also caused increasing the risk of hospitalisation of HFMD was 75% - 85%. However, the average daily humidity <60% reduced the risk of getting HFMD. The study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD cases was associated with meteorological variables including average daily temperature and daily humidity in Ho Chi Minh City. This findings implies that there is a need for building a public health policy for eliminating and mitigating climate change impact on community health in a resilient approach.