Open AccessSpatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in Global Warming Scenario
Author(s) -
Xinyu Guo,
Chaolin Gu,
Bei Li,
Wenwen Zhang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/809/1/012015
Subject(s) - typhoon , climatology , tropical cyclone , environmental science , climate change , global warming , period (music) , spatial distribution , common spatial pattern , geography , oceanography , geology , statistics , mathematics , physics , remote sensing , acoustics
Utilizing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) TC best-track data covering the period of 1951-2015, spatial and temporal variation characteristics of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario is discussed. The annual frequency trend of TC in the Northwest Pacific is as follows: from the late 1950s to the early 1960s, there was an obvious upward trend, the late 1960s to the early 1980s showed a downward trend, the late 1980s to the mid 1990s showed an upward trend, and the mid-1990s to the late 2010s showed a downward trend. The frequency of super TY in the Northwest Pacific showed a rapid downward trend from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and then changed to a slow upward trend. The region where the linear change of different stages of TC life cycle stage (genesis, development, mature, decay) frequency is approaching to central Asian coastline. Northwest Pacific TC activity decreases, but from the perspective of spatial distribution of linear changes, the threat of TC towards eastern Asia is enhanced. That is probably because the global warming scenario results in the increasing temperature gradient between Northwest Pacific and central and eastern Pacific, which leads to the strengthening of walker circulation. The strengthening walk circulation could increase the magnitude of the vertical wind sheer and the relative vorticity on the tropical Northwest Pacific, which affects the spatial variation of TC activity in Northwest Pacific.