Open AccessStudy on the Probability Model of Ship-Bridge Collision
Author(s) -
YU Guang-nian,
Weidong Gan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/783/1/012157
Subject(s) - collision , probability model , probability distribution , bridge (graph theory) , probability density function , function (biology) , engineering , computer science , simulation , statistics , mathematics , evolutionary biology , medicine , biology , computer security
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the existing major ship collision probability models, this paper combined the advantages of the AASHTO model and the KUNZI model and improved AASHTO model by using the ship simulator to obtain the ship’s track probability distribution curve to replace the original geometric probability distribution curve. It also introduced ship stopping probability function to make up for the shortcomings of the AASHTO model in which the influence of human factors is not considered. Finally, this paper predicts the collision probability of the Longjiang Bridge in 2025 with the improved model.