Open AccessResearch on Forecast of Water Demand in Jinzhou Based on Grey Model
Author(s) -
Kun You,
Ning Kang,
Jinxiang Fu,
Yujia Gao,
Weiyi Qian,
Juliang Wang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iop conference series. earth and environmental science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.179
H-Index - 26
eISSN - 1755-1307
pISSN - 1755-1315
DOI - 10.1088/1755-1315/770/1/012037
Subject(s) - water consumption , environmental science , consumption (sociology) , virtual water , resource (disambiguation) , water resources , water use , yield (engineering) , water saving , water resource management , environmental engineering , ecology , water scarcity , computer science , social science , computer network , materials science , sociology , biology , metallurgy
According to the related requirements of water demand prediction in Jinzhou, and based on the current situation of water resource carrying capacity in Jinzhou from 2011 to 2017 and the grey model, the water demand from 2021 to 2025 was predicted, and the grey GM(1,1) model of ecological water demand, virtual aquatic yield, residential water consumption and urban public water consumption was established. The results showed that the regional water demand showed a trend of slow increase, among which the urban public water demand had a larger growth space, while the ecological water demand and virtual aquatic production had a smaller growth range. The accuracy of the grey forecast model is more than 90%, It can provide a new way to forecast the main water use and total water demand.